The Numbers: The False Narrative that Voting for Ammon Bundy Would “Split the Vote” — Republicans Gained 150,000 Voters Since 2018, Democrats Gained Only 30,000 Voters

In Idaho, Democrats Lose

In 2018, Governor Brad Little won his primary race against Raul Labrador by only a slight margin of 9,070 votes. As the Republican nominee, Little went on to defeat the Democrat in Idaho’s 2018 gubernatorial race by a margin of 59%, winning with a total of 361,661 votes. The Democrat candidate, Paulette Jordan, lost after garnering 38% of the vote with a total of 231,081 votes.

Party politics has substantially changed since 2018, demographically and ideologically here in Idaho. Over the past 4 years the Republican Party has gained just under 150,000 registered voters, while the Democrat party gained only 30,000 voters. The unaffiliated, however, lost around 13,000 registered voters.

Today, the Republican Party has 574,005 voters, while the Democrat Party has only 128,832 voters.

Here is how the numbers have changed

Let’s do some math

Voter turnout has been increasing over the past several years, due to a multitude of factors. Issues relating to Covid-19 policies, Critical Race Theory in schools, and obscene materials found in local libraries have all driven voters to the polls in larger numbers than in the past, especially for smaller, less publicized races. 2022 will prove to be no different.

When we add the 150,000 newly registered Republican in Idaho to those Republicans who participated in the 2018 gubernatorial election (361,661), Republicans are looking at 511,661 likely voters participating this November 8th for the Mid-Term election.

511,661 Divided by Two is still only 255,830

These numbers, however, do not factor in the large number of unaffiliated voters, many who vote Republican in the general election.

Various estimates of unaffiliated voter participation show that a little over 1/3rd of the unaffiliated vote Republican, giving the Republican Party another 100,000 voters roughly. This brings the total number of individuals who may participate and vote Republican up to 611,661.

Based on these numbers, if the conservative vote was split down the middle, there would be around 350,700 votes for each candidate (Brad Little / Ammon Bundy). This number far surpasses the vote totals that the Democrat candidates are projected to receive, and would still give Idaho either a Republican Governor (Little) or the Conservative Governor (Bundy).

In the unlikely event that 2/3rds of Idaho unaffiliated voters all voted for the Democrat candidate for governor, Stephen Heidt, he would only receive a maximum of 311,776 votes, falling almost 39,000 votes short against a split Republican party.

Factoring in the Libertarian & Constitution Party vote

Together, both parties have a total of just over 15,000 voters. If the majority of these voters participate in the general election, throwing their support behind one of the two leading candidates — that brings the potential total of Republican/Independent voters to 626,661.

Now, factoring in the growing Conservative lean of the Idaho Republican Party, who just overwhelmingly voted in Dorothy Moon as their party chair with over 2/3rds of party support, while also factoring in the libertarian/constitutional support for the more Conservative pick — while factoring the 150,000 newly registered Republican voters, many who are more Conservative than the establishment Republican regime, we are left with a real chance that the Ammon Bundy campaign could see victory this November.

Interestingly, there have been no polls provided to the public when traditionally there would have been at least two publicly available by this time. This could mean those who are conducting them are worried about their results.

There has been a “don’t talk about him” strategy towards the Bundy campaign, while in recent weeks, the Bundy campaign has been outperforming the Little campaign on all fronts.

While the Republican Party has swiftly moved further to the right, kicking neoconservative candidates to the curb, if trends hold up, Idaho could have a Bundy for Governor.

Regardless of who you may be voting for personally, the above numbers show that whoever you vote for, a Democrat will not become Governor.

Vote for Bundy, or Vote for little, either way Democrats lose.